A macro indicator correctly signals a recession 80% of the time when a recession actually happens. However, it also triggers a false alarm 10% of the time during normal markets. If historically we are in a recession 5% of the time, and the indicator just flashed, what is the probability we are actually entering a recession?

一个宏观指标在真正发生经济衰退时，有 80% 的概率会准确亮起。但它在正常市场下也有 10% 的概率会误报。历史上看，市场处于衰退期的概率是 5%。如果现在指标刚刚亮起，我们真正进入衰退的概率是多少？