Here's the annual model for our new card product: $2 billion in balances, 20% APR, 5% cost of funds, 5% loss rate, and $80 million in annual operating costs, which gives us $120 million in profit. The risk committee wants a recession downside scenario. How would you set the assumptions, what does profit become, and at what loss rate do we start losing money?

我们新信用卡产品的年度模型：余额20亿美元，APR 20%，资金成本5%，损失率5%，运营成本每年8000万，算下来年利润1.2亿。风险委员会让你做一个经济衰退的下行情景。你会怎么设定假设？利润会变成多少？损失率到多少会亏钱？